Posts

I write less than I would like.

  • Toward a Better Footy Tipping Model: The Folly of Memory

    I concluded the previous post with a promise to consider AFL match data as a series of events occurring in time, because that is what they are. Though aggregations can reveal patterns across non-temporal dimensions (e.g. home vs away, ladder position, team), they obscure the sport as participants and spectators experience it. In this post I will look at two...

  • Toward a Better Footy Tipping Model: Mistakes Were Made

    The meaning of ‘footy’, like ‘curry’, is heavily dependent on context. Sure, there may be a shared essence, the consistency of the sauce, the rice, the contact of foot against ball, but the details are so varied and so specific, going beyond nationality down to the level of regional cultures, local histories, so as to make one version strange, foreign...